The recent tensions in the Middle East are reshaping economic opportunities for Italian companies. Nevertheless, the Arabian Peninsula continues to stand out as a crucial and fast-growing market for high-efficiency HVAC+R systems targeting high-value segments. From luxury residential developments to hospitals, Vision 2030 is driving the adoption of high-efficiency technologies. These are the prospects for the Italian market emerging from the analysis conducted by Gen Emirates for MCE.

Milan, 24^th March 2026 – Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and escalating conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran are shaping the economic outlook for Italian companies. The region accounts for €27.9 billion in Made in Italy exports (first eleven months of 2025, +7.9% year-on-year), with a focus on the United Arab Emirates (€8 billion) and Saudi Arabia (€6 billion), in sectors such as energy, luxury, and advanced technologies.

The main risks include logistical instability and rising insurance costs across supply chains, as well as volatility in oil prices.

Despite the geopolitical context, Saudi Arabia continues to stand out as a crucial and rapidly expanding market for high-efficiency HVAC+R systems in high-value niches. This is the key finding of the latest Critical Analysis of the HVAC Market in Saudi Arabia, carried out by Gen Emirates, the company that provides support to Italian businesses seeking to establish a stable and long-term presence in the Arab region.

A new service has therefore been developed by MCE – Mostra Convegno Expocomfort in partnership with Gen Emirates. Following four preliminary virtual meetings offering strategic insights, the service will be formally introduced with two update sessions in the Conference & Business areas during the event:

·        25^th March 2026, 2:30 PM Hall 1 - Destination Saudi: Focus on heating and heat pump technologies.

·        26^th March 2026, 2:00 PM Hall 2 - Destination Saudi: Focus on Water Treatment, Pumps and Valves.

“These are the sectors we have identified as offering some of the greatest growth opportunities for Italian exports, particularly in light of an economic environment that is once again under threat.” said Mauro Bandelli, CEO of Gen Emirates.

The analysis by Gen Emirates shows that the overall Saudi HVAC+R sector is worth approximately $3–3.5 billion (2024–2025 estimates), with a robust CAGR of around 6%. Within this market, demand for reliable and sustainable solutions remains strong and is growing across four key segments: luxury residential, industrial, hospitality and healthcare.

The growth is primarily driven by:

·        Luxury boom and mega-projects: the luxury real estate and residential market is expected to reach $47.34 billion by 2030, driven by initiatives such as NEOM, The Line and Red Sea Global. These projects require sophisticated, high-efficiency, design-led HVAC+R systems, paving the way for solutions such as air-to-water heat pumps for heating and domestic hot water;

·        Energy efficiency and transition: the Saudi Vision 2030 strategy aims to generate 50% of electricity from renewable sources, making high-efficiency electric solutions (such as heat pumps) increasingly attractive as energy tariffs rise;

·        Industrial growth and heat recovery: the industrial heating segment, although smaller, is expanding rapidly, with forecasts indicating growth from $227.8 million in 2024 to $372.9 million by 2033. The need to optimise processes is driving the adoption of waste heat recovery (WHR) systems, with the market expected to grow at a CAGR of over 11% through to 2029;

·        Healthcare: the expansion of the healthcare sector is expected to require more than 27,000 additional hospital beds by 2030. In Saudi hospitals, HVAC+R systems — essential for precise temperature and humidity control and air filtration — account for 40–60% of total energy consumption, making efficiency a critical requirement.

The analysis confirms that Italian companies, drawing on their strong technological expertise and quality heritage, can successfully enter this market—but only if they adopt targeted strategies:

•         Focus on quality and efficiency (rather than price): in the luxury segment and in critical applications (hospitals, industry), emphasise added value: products that are quiet, reliable, efficient, and compliant with international standards (LEED, ESTIDAMA) and local regulations (SASO);

•         Local presence and partnerships: it is crucial to establish strong local partnerships with major EPC/MEP contractors and specialised distributors, as they are essential for sales in mega-projects and for meeting local content requirements (e.g., Aramco’s IKTVA programme).

“It is advisable for Italian companies looking to operate in the Middle East to closely monitor the ongoing military escalation, which is causing widespread regional instability,” emphasises Bandelli. “Yet despite the tensions, the Gulf remains a strategic market for Italian HVAC+R exports.”

“It is on the basis of detailed analyses that MCE – Mostra Convegno Expocomfort continues to be a key platform for developing market advantages,” concludes Massimiliano Pierini, Managing Director of RX Italy. “It provides the sector with the tools necessary to seize the ambitious opportunities that Vision 2030 offers in terms of sustainability and advanced comfort.”

MCE - MOSTRA CONVEGNO EXPOCOMFORT is built by RX, a global leader in events and exhibitions, leveraging industry expertise, data and technology to build businesses for individuals, communities and organisations. With a presence in 25 countries across 41 industry sectors, RX hosts approximately 350 events annually. RX is committed to creating an inclusive work environment for all our people. RX empowers businesses to thrive by leveraging data-driven insights and digital solutions.
RX is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. For more information, visit www.rxglobal.com